Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January and a Look Ahead to February Sales

A brief excerpt:

After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR. This is the final look at local markets in January.

The big story for January was that existing home sales increased year-over-year (YoY) for the fourth consecutive month following year-over-year declines every month since July 2021. However, sales in January, at 4.08 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR) were down from December and still historically low. Sales averaged almost 5.5 million SAAR in the January 2017-2020 period. So, sales were still about 25% below pre-pandemic levels.
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Here is a look at months-of-supply using NSA sales. Since this is NSA data, it is likely this is close to the seasonal low for months-of-supply.

Miami is off the charts!
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More local data coming in March for activity in February!

There is much more in the article.

From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased:

Construction spending during January 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,192.5 billion, 0.2 percent below the revised December estimate of $2,196.0 billion. The January figure is 3.3 percent above the January 2024 estimate of $2,122.2 billion.
emphasis added

Private spending decreased and public spending increased:

Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,686.0 billion, 0.2 percent below the revised December estimate of $1,690.1 billion. …

In January, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $506.6 billion, 0.1 percent above the revised December estimate of $505.9 billion.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.

Private residential (red) spending is 4.9% below the peak in 2022.

Private non-residential (blue) spending is at a new peak.

Public construction spending is 0.1% below the peak in November 2024.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending.

On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is up 3.1%. Private non-residential spending is up 1.8% year-over-year. Public spending is up 5.9% year-over-year.

The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 22 February. …

16-22 February 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 60.3% (-2.7%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$159.90 (+2.5%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$96.49 (-0.3%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking last year and is lower than the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn’t start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will increase seasonally for the next several weeks.

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January

• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December

• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022 Peak

• Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in January; Up 3.9% Year-over-year

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

The key report scheduled for this week is the February employment report.

Fed Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook on Friday.

—– Monday, March 3rd —–

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for February. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.8, down from 50.9 in January. 

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for January. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in construction spending.

All day: Light vehicle sales for February. Sales were at 15.6 million in January (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). The consensus is for an increase in sales to 15.9 million SAAR.

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the January sales rate.

—– Tuesday, March 4th —–

No major economic releases scheduled.

—– Wednesday, March 5th —–

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for February. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 140,000 payroll jobs added in February, down from 183,000 added in January.

10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for February.

2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

—– Thursday, March 6th —–

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. There were 242 thousand initial claims last week.

8:30 AM: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services for January from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The U.S. trade deficit was at $98.4 billion in December.

—– Friday, March 7th —–

8:30 AM: Employment Report for February.   The consensus is for 158,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.0%.

There were 143,000 jobs added in January, and the unemployment rate was at 4.0%.

This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

12:30 PM: Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Economic Outlook, At The University of Chicago Booth School of Business 2025 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, New York, N.Y.

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported since Jan 2023.

And here is a graph I’m following concerning COVID in wastewater as of February 27th:

This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.  This has moving down recently.