The Consumer Price Index for February is scheduled to be released tomorrow. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.9% year-over-year (YoY), and core CPI to be up 3.2% YoY.
From Goldman Sachs economists:
We forecast a 0.29% increase in the core CPI in February (vs. 0.3% consensus). Our forecast reflects an increase in used (+0.6%) and new car prices (+0.3%) and another large increase in car insurance (+1.0%), as well as a boost from seasonal distortions to communications (+0.3%) and airfares (+2.5%). We expect the shelter components to moderate slightly (OER +0.29%, rent +0.27%) and lodging to reverse some of last month’s jump (-0.5%).
Our forecast would lower year-over-year core CPI inflation to 3.21%. We forecast that headline CPI rose 0.27% in February, reflecting higher food (+0.2%) and energy (+0.2%) prices, and 2.87% over the last year.
From BofA:
We forecast that February headline and core CPI rose by 0.3% mom. While this would be
a notable moderation from January, it would still be a sticky-high print. We expect the
increase in tariffs on China to boost core goods excluding used car prices. Core services
inflation, meanwhile, should moderate but remain above levels consistent with the Fed’s
target. In short, CPI data should reinforce our view that inflation progress has stalled.
