From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Recover Some of Last Week’s Losses

Bonds are once again paying attention to weakness in stocks–it just happened to take a bigger drop in stocks that we saw last week. Despite the improvement in rates, we would still expect some resistance to the idea of rapid improvement unless the economic data begins to sound the same warnings as equities markets.

On that note, the most relevant econ data on the near-term horizon is Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), the first of the broad measures of inflation in the U.S. and one of the biggest potential sources of volatility for rates. [30 year fixed 6.72%]
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Tuesday:
• At 6:00 AM ET, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for February.

• At 10:00 AM, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for January from the BLS.

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission.

Uncertainty shapes economic cycles — fueling booms,
triggering busts, and driving debates about what comes
next. Uncertainty abounds in the railroad industry too,
where evolving demand, market conditions, and
economic policies constantly create both challenges
and opportunities.

…

For now, both rail traffic and the broader economy
reflect a mix of strengths and weaknesses, with some
sectors proving resilient while others struggle in the
face of shifting conditions.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows the year-over-year change for carloads, carloads ex-coal, and intermodal.

In February, intermodal performance was again
strong, with volumes rising 6.4% (66,340 units) year
over-year. Originations averaged 276,654 units per
week, the most ever for a February. This strength
reflects solid consumer spending and, in part, efforts
by some importers to expedite shipments in anticipation
of tariffs.
…
U.S. railroads originated 843,618 carloads in February,
down 4.5% from last year. Carloads rose fractionally in
January, their first increase in five months. In February,
severe floods in the Northeast and frigid temperatures
in the upper Midwest and much of the rest of the
country constrained rail operations and the ability of rail customers to load and unload freight. Without these
weather issues, rail volumes likely would have been higher.

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025

A brief excerpt:

This 2-part overview for mid-March provides a snapshot of the current housing market.

Inventory, inventory, inventory! Inventory usually tells the tale. Currently I’m watching months-of-supply closely.
…

Since both inventory and sales have fallen significantly, a key for house prices is to watch months-of-supply. The following graph shows months-of-supply since 2017. The following graph shows months-of-supply since 2017. Note that months-of-supply is higher than 6 of the last 8 years, and at the same level as in 2017.

Months-of-supply was at 3.5 months in January 2025, up from 3.0 months in January 2024, and down from 3.8 months in January 2019. Note that December and January usually have the lowest months-of-supply.

This suggests that year-over-year price growth will continue to slow. Inventory would probably have to increase to 5 1/2 to 6 months of supply to see national price declines again.

There is much more in the article.

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024

• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in January

• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in February

• Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January and a Look Ahead to February Sales

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

The key report this week is February CPI.

—– Monday, March 10th —–

No major economic releases scheduled.

—– Tuesday, March 11th —–

6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for February.

10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for January from the BLS.

This graph shows job openings (black line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Jobs openings decreased in December to 7.60 million from 8.12 million in November.

—– Wednesday, March 12th —–

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for February from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.9% Year-over-year (YoY), and core CPI to be up 3.2% YoY.

—– Thursday, March 13th —–

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 225 initial claims up from 221 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: The Producer Price Index for February from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in PPI, and a 0.3% increase in core PPI.

12:00 PM: Q4 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States from the Federal Reserve.

—– Friday, March 14th —–

10:00 AM: University of Michigan’s Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for March).

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported since Jan 2023.

And here is a graph I’m following concerning COVID in wastewater as of March 6th:

This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.  This has moving down recently.

From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decreased in February

Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were lower in February compared to January. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) decreased to 204.1, which reflects a 0.1% increase from a year ago. The seasonal adjustment to the index drove the monthly move for the index, as non-seasonally adjusted values rose for the month. The non-adjusted price in February increased by 1.4% compared to January, moving the unadjusted average price up 0.8% year over year.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions.